A Sober Re-appraisal
Leyton Orient (0) 0 Swansea City (1) 5
Nelson; Purches (Capt), Thelwell, Mkandawire, Palmer (sub Corden 63); JJ Melligan (sub Demetriou 58), Chambers, Thornton, C Daniels; Gray (sub Ibehre 58), Boyd.
Leyton Orient (0) 0 Dagenham & Redbridge (0) 1
Morris; Chambers (Capt)(Purches (Capt) HT), Oji, Saah, Palmer; JJ Melligan (sub C Daniels HT), Terry, Demetriou, Corden; Gray (sub Echanomi 71), Ibehre.
Hardly the headline to capture ninety minutes spent in the company of Spike Lang (SpikeinRaith) watching what was arguably Orient’s strongest team fielded this season get beaten comprehensively, and by the biggest margin for many years, by quite the best team we have seen this season so far. The details of both games are well documented elsewhere. What is clearly more important is some dispassionate analysis of where we are and why and where we might now go.
Luck, as we have often observed, is usually made from within ourselves. Confidence, skill, self-belief, fitness, teamwork, all go towards creating that wraith-like creature to which we are so ready to ascribe our changing fortunes. Yet it would appear that we have been genuinely lucky in two respects this season. First off, our fixtures for the first eight weeks of the season were hardly over-demanding. Only Southend and Hartlepool are now top eight sides and we always do well at Southend anyway. One of life’s immutable laws. Second, we have profited from two different, but related, psychological footballing phenomena. First, the Wigan syndrome. Whenever a side appears in a different division for the first time in a while, there will always be a novelty effect. Superior opposition -- and, ceteris paribus, one has to assume that most opposition will usually be superior to a promoted outfit, -- will be totally unaware of what to expect. The teams will variously never have met before and the surprise element, combined usually with an aggressive and positive attitude, will frequently down many a Goliath. The stadium and pitch, too, can add to this factor where visiting players are unfamiliar, not only with opposing players, but with the entire surroundings. Wigan and Reading are the classic examples of this phenomenon in recent years, Southend perhaps, too, though only once. However, as both Wigan and Reading are about to demonstrate, reality eventually catches up with you in these circumstances. Now, we cannot argue that most of our opponents are unfamiliar with Brisbane Road. But, to stretch a point, the fourth stand is a novelty and many of them will have been to Brissy no more than once in recent years. But it is the players who are the real novelty since only Chambers, Corden and Thelwell remain from last year’s starting eleven and this is effectively a completely new Orient side. We might as well be newly-promoted. The effect is the same on those early opponents.
And the second, and related factor is the crap-team effect. So poor were we last season that everyone, from the bookies down to the media had totally written us off. Likewise, the opposition. No need even to have them watched. Points for the taking. The psychological advantage of the crap-team syndrome is immeasurable. For most of those opening fixtures, it allowed us to dictate the pace, the tempo, the game itself. Ironically, or perhaps logically, it was only when the bookies and others reluctantly started to take us seriously and we started to be quoted as play-off candidates, that we began to crack up. I’ll wager Swansea had us watched. Hartlepool, too, maybe. Leeds, for sure. From hereinon, we simply need to accept, players and fans, that we will no longer be taken for granted but indeed, quite the reverse, opponents will be making an extra effort to outdo us. Unless of course we revert to “crap team”.
On the other hand, it could be said that those early, easier fixtures, combined with the surprise Wigan and crap-team syndromes, went some way towards masking the underlying problems with the side. Fact. Wayne Corden has yet to score. Fact. Striker Wayne Gray has two goals from thirteen outings. Why Tammy has as many from centre-back. Fact. Top-scorer Adam Boyd hasn’t scored for four games. Fact also. Take the three or four key players out of the side -- and last night this included Sean Thornton, Stuart Nelson, Tammy and (to some degree) Adam Boyd, not to mention Adam Chambers for half the game, -- and we are left with a motley, disorganised bunch with little heart for competing and not much of a game-plan, less still any cohesion. That more or less explains, but not excuses the Daggers result (for the Cobra, at least). We made great pretence of taking the JPT seriously, with dreams of Leeds at Wembley to whet the appetite but, when the chips were down, it was more important (and very rightly so), to rest the key players for Saturday’s game. Fact. We didn’t really take it any more seriously than any other League One team.
Now highlighting those key players gets us back to where we are and how we got to where we are. Nobody should underestimate the immensity of the task which faced Martin Ling in the summer when six key players walked out without accepting generous new contracts. Added to the number who had been carefully (and correctly) pruned, that meant, as we know, the establishment of a completely new squad in just a few weeks. And, as he has told us, and as we all know, we were left a couple short of the ideal target. That fact has been masked by the excellent injury record, always a feature of a successful, confident side. (If the poor run continues, expect more injuries). That Martin has not added to the squad since (Sam Oji apart) is simply a case of a lack of adequate supply. Any incoming striker would have to be notably better than our existing four to warrant spending a fee. They don’t grow on trees. Full-backs? He thought Charlie Daniels was the cover required. Charlie has proved an excellent wide midfield player but has yet to establish a reputation as a full-back. For the next couple of months, we must hope that injuries do not mount and wait patiently for the window to open, hoping also that Martin has already targeted the players he will bid for.
A brief assessment of individual form. Glyn Garner was by no means infallible. He simply knew how to save penalties! But he rarely came off his line. Far too cautious. Stuart Nelson is, for all his shortcomings, quite the best goalkeeper we have seen in recent years. Difficult to understand why two goals (at least) have been allowed to pass beneath his diving body. Poor judgment or co-ordination? But no-one is perfect. Paul Robinson will be starting for England this weekend. Enough said. Incidentally, Glenn Morris’s goalkeeping was, by and large, excellent last night. Hard to say whether he might have stopped the one and only goal though he was off his line when the shot was taken and has been surprised in the past in this way. The goal was similar to several we have conceded recently (notably against Swansea), a shot from distance which rocketed into the top corner of the net. However, his place-kicking was barely improved from the woeful level of a few years back and this can be a major negative when the team is already struggling. But some great and courageous saves nonetheless which, to be sure, kept the scoreline down. All the same, Stuart must start at Leeds and we must get behind him.
Aiden Palmer is the surprise package of the season, progressing from raw schoolboy to mature full-back in a matter of weeks. Yet, when faced with a really outstanding side in Swansea, it was at full-back that we were most exposed defensively, with two or more goals coming directly from the roasting that the Swans’ wide men were regularly imposing on our backs. The manager made an odd remark to the Gallery before that game. Seeming or seeking to justify Stephen Purches’ inclusion in the starting line-up, he said “He must have something to offer or I wouldn’t have made him captain, would I?” For the rest of us, the jury was still out. We still haven’t seen enough of Stephen this season to be able to judge. But the Cobra detected the first signs of doubt in the manager’s mind that here might be a weakness. Perhaps we should bid for Matt Lockwood in the window. He can’t be happy at Forest!
Sam Oji proved last night that centre-back is the one spot where we can cope with illness or injury. Good to see Brian Saah, too, on the park again. Having already reviewed the strike-force, we are left with the wide-midfield. The Cobra has been a great fan of all our recent wide midfielders but none of them, it has to be said, come remotely near performing as did the Swansea speedsters. There is hope that Charlie Daniels, with his keen eye for goal, will achieve the same ends by different means. JJ Melligan’s missed open goal last night, following a perfect cross from the left by Jason Demetriou across the face of the goal, came hot on the heels of his spurned opportunity to equalise on Saturday. It leaves us wondering whether he does indeed have an eye for goal or is merely trusting to the rub of the green. Some competition, preferably of the direct variety, in this department could be another priority come the window. Meanwhile, a number of players have something to prove.
And us? Martin Ling has been fairly consistent in setting our targets, expectations and ambitions. Middle-eight. No reason not to want to do better than that, though. To hope for a play-off spot, or thereabouts. The one advantage, paradoxically, that we have this Saturday is that no-one any more expects us to get a result. Let us hope the players take advantage of that. We always knew that we had a tough six games coming up from Yeovil to Leeds and, if we are now disappointed that the return has not been as much as our inflated expectations suggested, then we should look ahead to the next half-dozen (eight in fact) which are, at least in theory, slightly less daunting. It will be important to have some confidence and self-belief restored before then and our own part, both travelling FO’s and, perhaps more important the following week at home will be crucial to that end.
COBRA
