Hype and Counter-hype

Leyton Orient (1) 1 Bristol Rovers (0) 1

Nelson; Purches (Capt), Thelwell, Mkandawire, C Daniels; JJ Melligan (sub Thornton 64), Chambers, P Terry (sub Echanomi 81), Demetriou (sub Corden 64); Boyd, Gray.

Anyone who reads the Matchday Programme (pardon me, Magazine), will quickly have absorbed the central message set before the fans this week. For Chairman, Manager and Captain were all extolling the virtues of a competition which has lost a lot of its historic attractiveness, at least to the fans and media. We were reminded time and again, as if we needed reminding, of the great days of 2006, just last year in fact albeit two seasons ago, when we trooped in vast numbers to both Craven Cottage and the Valley for what, to us, were titanic struggles with Premier outfits Fulham and Charlton. Whether those opponents felt the same way was and is an interesting question. Those top-flight clubs clearly retain an interest in our oldest competition (and the world’s) though one wonders sometimes whether this interest merely seems so by comparison with their clear lack of enthusiasm for the Carling Cup. And that is surely to damn with faint praise! No wonder M.Platini seeks to award an automatic Champions League place to the FA Cup winners. A crock of gold which would surely prove too big a carrot for the biggest to resist, it would certainly restore much of the lost glitter to this ancient tourney, rightly or wrongly so.

Indeed, our manager embellished the spin, in his pre-match talk to the Gallery faithful, by supposing that a good Cup run would increase the size of the resources available to him in the January window. This within a short while of the Chairman’s having announced that the need for provision of those resources was debatable. And Martin went on to speculate which positions he would want to be strengthening, a titillating tidbit to set before us as we wound ourselves up for arguably the least interesting draw of the entire round. So, the message was clear. Win this one and the next in style and a January meeting with a “bigger” outfit would guarantee a spending spree in those January sales.

So salivating at the prospect, we went out to watch what proved to be one of the more lifeless displays of this season. Indeed, it seemed that, so keen were the management to persuade the fans, that no-one had bothered to tell the players. Now the Cobra has been researching these early rounds of the Cup for the last two or three seasons and believes there is a theory in the making. So stratified has English professional football become that it is much easier now to predict the results of these cup games than it was, say, just five years ago. Indeed, as a general rule, teams from League One enjoy a very high success rate when playing a non-league side, and almost as high a success rate against League Two teams. Of twenty-four starters, only two (League One outfits) failed to make the draw for the Second Round and that dubious distinction fell to out-of-form Yeovil at Conference high-flyers Torquay and the team with the most abysmal away record of all, a record which would not even run to a win at Barnet! Step forward our erstwhile conquerors, Gillingham. Yet, of the remaining twenty-two, as many as twelve were held to a draw and, if one abstracts the six who, like ourselves, faced League One opposition, the identity of the remaining six is of interest. For Leeds, Notts Forest, Carlisle and in-form Luton were amongst those who failed to beat lowlier opposition and to those one could add Doncaster and……….Leyton Orient.

It would seem, then, that the players at these promotion-contending clubs are not singing from the same sheet as their Chairmen and managers; that, as for the Arsenals and Chelseas of this world, the League competition, with its financial rewards, both bonuses and the higher pay scales which promotion would inevitably entail, is all-consuming. The Cup may be seen as a distraction, and maybe an unwelcome distraction, to a team in form. Nobody wants to get injured or sent off. Indeed, thoughts are very much on that next League game and, in our case, the Sky TV cameras that will accompany it. Nonetheless, the paymasters desperately want that Third Round plum and, such is the evidence building behind the Theory of Stratification that the Cobra decided to put his money where his mouth was. A brief summary of the results awaits those with the energy to reach the end of this week’s epic.

Meanwhile, we had wondered how and when Sean Thornton would be injected back into the side. The sort of team selection problem which Martin Ling likes to say he relishes. Too many good players for only eleven places. After four weeks and four games out, Sean must have felt badly in need of match practice. The Cobra would have granted him that on the grounds that you always pick your most powerful eleven, though who might have stood aside for him is not for discussion here. Martin preferred to reward those who had played so well at Swindon and start with Sean on the bench, so denying the match practice and delaying the difficult question. An unchanged Orient, therefore, lost the toss and kicked off in a southerly direction. The ball is passed from Boyd to Chambers to Demetriou, Daniels and again Demetriou and Orient win a throw. Jason to Wayne Gray who loses the ball. Tam is up for the clearance. To Daniels, Thelwell, Purches and a long ball. Gray, Boyd, Chambers, Purches and a through-ball which is cleared. Thelwell clears the clearance long. To Chambers, Terry and Boyd who gives the ball away. Rovers on the attack. Thelwell with the tackle. Rovers return. The ball runs back to Stuart Nelson. Pirates again from the kick. Cleared to Wayne Gray. To Chambers for a through-ball to Wayne Gray, a half-chance which is cleared. Rovers break quickly, a shot from inside the box which Nelson holds easily and kicks long for Wayne Gray. To Purches and Melligan who gives inside but the ball is cleared and Purches gives up a throw ten yards from the corner flag. Gas a big cross which Nelson holds at the far post. Gas again from the kick and Tam clears and Steve Phillips comes out of his penalty area to kick long. Daniels intercepts and Tam sweeps acrossfield to Melligan. On to Wayne Gray who lays off for Melligan who bursts through to shoot ten yards over the crossbar. Five minutes.

We win a corner on the right. Daniels cross is cleared. Demetriou returns with a cross which is cleared. Purches and Daniels intervene and pass back to Nelson. Rovers again. Terry up and out. Gas again with a big long ball-cum-cross which Nelson retrieves at the edge of the box and to one side. Short to Melligan, on to Purches and back to Chambers, he back again to Thelwell and on to Tam. Long for Jason who glances the ball on but loses it and the ball is passed back to Phillips whose unusual and bright attire brings some in the Gallery to question his sexual orientation. Terry intervenes and finds Purches but his ball is long and lost. Chambers gets up for the clearance and picks out Melligan but again the ball is lost. Boyd recovers and to Purches, on to Chambers, back to Terry and on to Melligan whose cross is headed back to Phillips. Ten minutes.

Daniels picks up the ‘keeper’s kick and gives long to Gray, he back to Boyd who gives on to Melligan but a poor cross is easily cleared. Rovers break down the middle and Tam is beaten for the ball, a rare occurrence indeed but typical of the lack of focus which is characterising much of the Orient’s passing today. Rigg shoots from thirty yards and the ball passes only a yard outside the right-hand post. Nelson to Terry and back to Tammy, Thelwell, Melligan, Chambers. To Daniels and back to Chambo. To Terry, Daniels and back to Terry. On to Boyd who gives a through-ball for Gray which is intercepted. Terry regains, finds Melligan. To Purches and back to JJ but he is tackled and the ball cleared. Thelwell out of defence but Rovers come again. Orient win a free-kick for a foul against Jason Demetriou who, thinking to see advantage, takes the kick quickly. Too quick even for his team-mates. Rovers intercept and counter-attack and Nelson goes up to hold the shot. Short to Melligan, on to Terry and through for Gray who goes down in the box, looking as likely a dive as a foul, and referee Trevor Kettle wisely decides to ignore the entire incident. Phillips gathers. Gas on the break and Rigg again is through, now with only Nelson to beat, when Tam gets in a superb tackle from behind to rescue the situation. Another through-ball for Wayne Gray again finds its way back to Phillips who kicks long. Paul Terry gets up to head clear and Danny Coles clears decks for the Gas, this time onto the roof of the East Stand where the descending sphere lodges in the gutter, a rare event, and to the delight of the Orient fans. Fifteen minutes gone.

Rovers win a throw. Demetriou retrieves, to Chambers and Terry and intercepted. Rovers sweep crossfield. Carruthers, Jacobson, Campbell, Elliott and Lines who gives wide right. A big cross but over the crossbar. Nelson finds Boyd, he to Melligan and back to Boyd where the ball is intercepted. Adam seems foremost amongst those with no serious appetite for the game today. Pirates win a free-kick for a foul by Adam Chambers. Elliott takes, finds Lambert who nods down for Carruthers who makes ground down the line, nutmegs JJ Melligan and crosses for Tammy to clear. On to Wayne Gray and out to Jason Demetriou who beats one defender and puts in the perfect cross. Both Boyd and Gray are up for it and Boyd sensibly seems to leave it for his compatriot who powers a strong header into the top right-hand corner of Phillips’ net. 1 – 0 Orient and, for the second successive home game we have a first-half strike. Wonder of wonders! Rovers kick-off and give to the right where Demetriou intervenes and promptly gives the ball away again. Rovers a through-ball which Nelson fields. He kicks long, JJ runs through in attack and forces a corner on the right. Daniels with a left-footed inswinger. It is low, too low, and cleared at the near post for a throw to Orient. Purches to Boyd who wins another throw just two yards from the flag. Twenty minutes in.

Purches to Chambers to Demetriou who does well to make ground before the ball is cleared in the tackle. Purches again to Chambers, Thelwell and Tammy, good possession stuff this, and on to Boyd who flicks inside to Paul Terry. Back on to Boydy who shoots from twenty-five yards out and sees the ball sail a good ten feet over the bar. The goal-kick is long and Nelson comes out to field, finding Boyd who gives up a throw in mid-territory. Tam intercepts and passes back to Nelson but his clearance is poor and allows Rovers in with a shot which Paul Terry clears at the last ditch, Nelson suffering injury in the ensuing mêlée. The game re-starts and Orient win a free-kick, probably for handball since offside was out of the question. It is long and finds Wayne Gray who appears to be fouled but gets nothing for his pains. Chambers intercepts the clearance and finds Purches who makes ground and wins a throw a couple of yards from the corner-flag. Purches to Boyd to Purches and Chambers and lost. Pirates sweep crossfield to their right. Daniels in but unsuccessful and Campbell finds Carruthers and Jacobson. Melligan intervenes, is fouled and we have a free-kick. Gray is up for it but is dispossessed and Rovers win a throw on the halfway line. Tam battles with Rigg for the ball and comes out on top, finding JJ who gives away a throw in mid-half. Melligan recovers the ball and runs but Rovers win the goal-kick. It is long and cleared, Daniels getting it away. Gas attack again. Lines to Green. Chambo tackles and Orient win a free-kick for a foul on Tammy. Nelson to Melligan (this short ball the Cobra finds infinitely preferable to the long and usually futile hoof), he back to Thelwell and he back to Nelson again. Cautious stuff. Rovers retrieve the kick and break down the left. Melligan intervenes and wins a goal-kick. It is long. Phillips fields and kicks long. Thelwell clears for a throw ten yards from our corner flag. Cleared up to Wayne Gray, he inside to Boyd, back to Gray and crossfield to Daniels and Demetriou. To Terry and Chambers. A long ball to Purches. On to Melligan and in to Gray who gives a superb wide ball back to JJ. His cross is cleared to Purches who crosses again. Cleared again, now long to Rigg who suffers another brilliant tackle from Tammy in the box. Corner Gas. This is short and a dangerous cross is punched away by the rising Nelson. Free-kick Orient for the foul. Half an hour gone.

Nelson, Demetriou, Boyd and lost. Chambers recovers and Demetriou wins a throw midway into their territory. Rovers clear. Tam with the tackle, giving a throw. Tam again, now to Gray who is tackled and the ball cleared. Alton Thelwell intervenes, is fouled and we have a free-kick halfway into our half. Pirates clear decks and break away. Thelwell clears the cross. Another cross which Tammy heads clear. Purches does well to work the ball up the line. Back to Boyd and Chambers and Demetriou on the left who wins a throw five yards from the flag. Daniels and Demetriou work another throw, close to the flag and Daniels and Boyd win a third which, to the surprise of many, Boyd shapes to take. It is long and makes it into the box before Rovers clear. So, Cup games make for experiments. Short goal-kicks and now, a long throw expert to replace Jason Miller. Purches recovers the clearance, on to Melligan, back to his captain for a through-ball which is cleared long. Nelson comes off his line to field and kicks long. Gas clear. Tam gives away a throw. Rovers in the mix. Thelwell to the rescue. Rovers return but Rigg concedes a goal-kick. Boyd up to win a throw. To Terry but cleared. Terry again to Boyd but lost. Rovers break with a through-ball which Tam heads out. Daniels to Demetriou who gives long and the ball is passed back to Phillips. The pace quickens amid a flurry of free-kicks. Thelwell is penalised for a foul and Rovers have a free-kick five yards inside the halfway line. Campbell with the kick which is headed across the penalty area. Looks dangerous but Nelson is fouled and we have the kick. Now Purches is fouled and we have another free-kick just ten yards outside the box. Daniels takes, short to Demetriou and back to Daniels whose shot is now blocked and Orient have the throw. Demetriou back to Purches and he back to Nelson. Cautious stuff again. Nelson’s long kick is returned by Phillips. Tammy is penalised for “leaning” and Rovers have a free-kick ten yards outside the penalty area on the right. Campbell with the kick and Elliott with a glancing header which passes safely, if narrowly, for a goal-kick. A minute is added, time still for Lines to head a Campbell corner over the bar, but the Cobra is long since retired to the Gallery bar to check on the Theory of Stratification. Disturbing news from Notts Co, Stockport, Barrow, Carlisle, Altrincham, Lincoln and elsewhere suggest that the theory may not be worth the paper it is written on but, in reality, it only goes to show what we all already know: that every game is a game of two halves. The one redeeming feature, aside from the first-half strike, is the fine performance of Paul Terry, playing, not for the first time, in front of watching brother John and conscious, no doubt, that, if Sean Thornton is to return, he, Terry, will be amongst the principal contenders for the early bath. Indeed, as the Fantasticos re-assemble, the Resident Referee and the Law Librarian are in deep debate, not so much on the need for substitutions, which seems universally agreed, but rather as to who will come on and how Martin Ling will effect the changes.

Indeed, as the football quickly deteriorated still further, this debate was almost all that held the interest through the early second half, though not before an early flurry. Orient threatened first with Demetriou feeding Gray for a cross which was cleared. Just as soon, however, we are conceding a free-kick to the visitors just five yards outside the penalty area. Elliott and Coles shape to take, the former stepping aside for the latter to take the kick which hits the top of the crossbar, albeit Stuart Nelson seemed to have things well under control. Rovers return and Tam intercepts, setting Wayne Gray off down the left. He crosses for Boydy who gets up for it but is beaten. The ball reaches the far post and JJ Melligan gets in a shot from about five yards out which Phillips parries for a corner on the right. Daniels takes, left-footed and inswinging, as usual. Chambers gets up and gives a great ball on to Paul Terry but this is intercepted. Rovers break down the left, Chambers tackles, Terry clears, Rovers return. Igoe on to Green, wide right, and he to Lambert but Terry intercepts. Up to Boyd who loses the ball. Chambers recovers and gives the ball away again to the huge frustration of the crowd. Orient under pressure now. A cross which is cleared. Rovers switch wide right to Green. Daniels tackles for a throw by the flag. And another. Terry up and out. Demetriou gives away a throw in mid-half and Green breaks down the right. Jason concedes another throw by the flag. The ball is crossed, Tam clearing decks. Igoe returns a shot from outside the box and his low drive passes wide of the left-hand goalpost (as we look from the west). From the kick, Gas attack again, now down the left. A great cross which Stuart Nelson has to fist away at the near post. We have the throw and build a useful move but Chambers’ final through-ball finds no-one to receive. Now Gray is caught offside. Tam and Purches clear the kick but Rovers return and Lines’s through-ball finds Lambert free to shoot but the shot is awkward and passes wide of the right-hand post. Ten minutes in.

From the kick we win a free-kick in the centre-circle. Ball given away. Nelson’s next kick finds Demetriou who raises the excitement level by beating Phillips on the edge of the box only to be penalised for an infringement. Now Rovers down the right. JJ intervenes and the ball is hoofed into the East Stand for a throw. Rovers down the right again and Tammy now hoofs into the West Stand. Rovers throw. Goal-kick Orient. Rovers return again but Orient win a free-kick for offside. Fifteen minutes gone. Another several minutes of back and forth but fruitless play and Martin Ling, evidently aware of the crowd’s restlessness for change, pre-empts his favoured sixty-fifth minute by at least sixty seconds, introducing Wayne Corden for Jason Demetriou and Sean Thornton for JJ Melligan, an elegant and readily-explicable brace of substitutions. No let-up on the pressure, though, as, a minute later, Rovers shoot from outside the box. Terry blocks the shot. Rovers shoot again. Chambers blocks the shot. Orient clear. Gray through to Boyd on the break. Goal-kick Bristol! Ling’s substitutions have evidently thrown Paul Trollope who takes a full three minutes and more to re-act before eventually unveiling his own double-substitution. Richard Walker, he of the two penalty kicks at the Memorial Ground, comes on for Jacobson and Andy Williams replaces the luckless Sean Rigg. More two-way trade ensues. Thornton soon in the mix with a great ball through to Wayne Gray who runs into the box and shoots, only to see his shot blocked. Thornton returns to Boyd but the ball is lost. Terry recovers. To Thornton and back and crossfield for Daniels. To Corden and returned but intercepted and cleared. Now Gray is penalised, Rovers have the kick and we are under pressure again. Chambers clears, Rovers return. Nelson fields. Twenty minutes left.

Orient now on the attack and Wayne Gray with a huge cross which hits the top of the crossbar, Phillips apparently covering the kick. Now Rovers with a long cross. Green looks offside but nothing is given and Purches concedes a corner. Campbell’s inswinger is headed over the bar by Tammy for another corner. Daniels clears. Rovers again with another cross which Nelson comes out to field. To Terry and on to Corden and Gray who centres. Boyd gets up and nods across the face of the goal to the near post where Thornton is steaming in to connect but narrowly fails to do so. Goal-kick! The kick is long and Chambers and Thornton clear. To Corden and Gray who lays back for Boyd to shoot from thirty yards out. Phillips goes down to save. Now Gas on the break and Walker shoots over the crossbar from around the penalty spot. Now things start to fall apart. Corden clears the next attack. A loud shout for handball against Rovers is not given. The ball is crossed from the left and appears to go for a goal-kick. A corner is signalled, Daniels perhaps getting the final touch. Elliott goes up with Tammy who wins the duel but concedes another corner. Campbell takes on the right. The defence freezes and Rickie Lambert is given space for a diving header to level the scores. 1 – 1. Less than ten minutes remaining. Martin Ling brings Efe Echanomi on for Paul Terry. Clearly a replay is almost as unwelcome as defeat itself and a three-striker ploy is evidently a gamble. Paul is obviously hugely miffed at missing the last nine minutes following such a sterling display. We are left to reflect on whether team cohesion might better have been preserved had Wayne Gray or Adam Boyd made way for Efe.

From the re-start, Corden’s cross is cleared and Thornton returns for Purches to shoot over the bar. Rovers break fast from the kick but Purches is back to win a goal-kick. Now Gray concedes a free-kick five yards into our half. Tam clears the cross for a throw three yards from the flag. A big shot is blocked by Sean Thornton and cleared but only to Campbell on the right. Daniels heads out the cross. A ball crossfield for Thornton is intercepted and Tam runs into trouble trying to clear and seeks the safety of the East Stand with a big boot. Orient recover and work the ball up for a throw just ten yards from the flag. Chambers puts Gray through and he crosses from the bye-line but Phillips holds. Orient try again and we are treated to the rare sight of Efe Echanomi roasting his opponent for sheer speed and crossing the ball from the right only for Phillips again to hold safely. Two minutes left and Orient win a throw for a foul on Daniels. Nelson advances to the halfway line (or five yards shy) to take the kick. It is long and wasted, running for a goal-kick. Three minutes are added. O’s continue to strive and Thornton’s free-kick is saved by Phillips. Trollope runs down the clock by bringing on Craig Hinton for Chris Lines in what proves to be almost the final throw of the dice. The Cobra is already persuaded that we have another trip to the Memorial Ground to look forward to (if that is the right sentiment) and again makes an early break for the bar. Not one to remember. Bring on the Seagulls.

Oh yes. The Theory of Stratification. Here are the Stats. Assume the punter buys the Mini-performance spread of each senior team (this spread rewards goals scored as well as the result) in a modest £2 stake. If all 24 games had resulted in losses for those senior sides backed with no goals scored in each case, then the punter loses £1,688!! But recent history suggests that the senior sides tend to do rather well. Let us see.

League One vs Non-League (Away) P 5 W 3 D 1 L 1 Punter wins £36

League One vs League Two (Home) P 5 W 3 D 2 L 0 Punter loses £4

League One vs League Two (Away) P 8 W 4 D 3 L 1 Punter wins £42

League Two vs Non-League (Home) P 4 W 3 D 1 L 0 Punter wins £72

League Two vs Non-League (Away) P 2 W 1 D 0 L 1 Punter wins £10

Total winnings £156!!!!!

The Cobra was not that bold and selected his choices, wisely avoiding Yeovil at Torquay and Macclesfield at Rushden and Gillingham at Barnet but also foregoing Dagenham’s success and Millwall’s, Swindon’s and Tranmere’s. As of Saturday evening the Cobra was down £14. But then came Hartlepool………..

Up the O’s.

COBRA